Agencies that publish economic data and economic analysis for the purpose of making a report can sometimes lead to very confusing results. Only yesterday the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reported that the UK government had done the right thing in initiating economic stimulus though it did have reservations about the growing public debt. Standard & Poor’s (S&P) the international credit reference agency, have now decided that due to this growing public debt it needed to issue a negative status thus reducing the AAA credit rating.
Peston writes in his blog:
“…Also, S&P has not said that the UK will definitely lose its triple-A rating, its rare and precious badge that we are good for our IOU’s in all seasons.
Putting British sovereign debt on negative outlook is not as bad as being assessed for possible downgrade, which almost always leads to a downgrade.
Apparently, a negative outlook is followed by downgrade in about a third of cases.
And some would say that S&P is stating the bloomin’ obvious, that public sector debt is patently rising too fast – and that we can’t assess the long term health of the economy, or the ability of the government to meet its financial obligations, till we know the taxation and debt plans of the next government.
S&P is thus in slightly different language repeating what the IMF said yesterday, that the UK needs a bolder plan to stem the rise in the national debt.”
And so we are left with as much vagueness as before, S&P is telling us no more than we already know. We are at a crucial stage, there will come a time when the economy will recover, there will come a time when we will not need to borrow and the public debt will begin to diminish. One thing is obvious, although a Cameron led Tory government might look attractive to many voters, Cameron’s economic strategy would not aid recovery, his policies would lead to greater unemployment and despair.